Former Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta (4.16 FIP) is expected to pitch for Chicago. This has been Arrieta’s worst season since joining the Cubs in 2013, and his supporters finished the regular season down 4.71 betting units on a team record of 16-14, including just one quality start in his last five games.
The Nationals respond with Tanner Roark (4.13 FIP), who’s pitched roughly as well as Arrieta this year, but at a relative bargain price for bettors. Roark has the same 16-14 team record, but with less chalk to carry, his red ink has been limited to 1.66 units. Comparing the two pitchers by ERA might lead casual fans astray; Roark’s 4.67 ERA is much higher than Arrieta’s 3.53, but Roark has also allowed an unfortunate .300 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play), while Arrieta’s .279 BABIP is closer to normal for that stat.
MLB Odds: Can Arrieta Find His Groove in Game 4?
Jake Arrieta (4.16 FIP) hasn’t enjoyed the best season of his career, but he can take the Chicago Cubs back to the National League Championship Series with a win Tuesday over Tanner Roark (4.13 FIP) and the Washington Nationals. First pitch from Wrigley Field is at 5:38 PM ET on TBS.
The Cubs took a 2-1 lead in their best-of-five NLDS on Monday with a 2-1 win over the Nationals (–117 away). Arrieta had just one quality start over his last five regular-season games; Roark has pitched only one inning since September 27, and that was in relief.
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